The Rabbit Hole #11🕳

Ark Invest released their Big Ideas 2022 Research report. Today, I thought I’d focus on what they said about blockchains and digital wallets:

Takeaway 1: ARK Expects Cryptoassets And Digital Wallets To Command Nearly $50 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030

What this means for blockchain technology:

  • All money and contracts could migrate to #opensource protocols that enable and verify digital scarcity and proof-of-ownership.
  • The financial ecosystem could be forced to reconfigure to take advantage of the capabilities these technologies afford, potentially leading to more transparency, fewer capital and regulatory controls, and significantly lower contract execution costs.
  • More of everything could become money-like: fungible, liquid, quantifiable; every corporate entity and consumer will have to adapt; corporate structures might be called into question; every sector could be impacted. (Refer to Rabbit Hole #10 for my thoughts on this)

What this means for digital wallets:

  • Consumers hold the power of a bank branch in their pockets and demand wholesale pricing for many financial transactions, changing their relationships with financial service providers.
  • ARK believes that trillions in annual cash transactions will be digitized, presenting a data monetization opportunity roughly equivalent to that of Google Search.
  • Digital wallets could become the point-of-contact for a variety of digital services.
  • Traditional financial services institutions could be at risk (adapt with the times or get left behind).

In ARK’s view, digital wallets could scale at an annual rate of 69% in the US, from more than $400 billion in market capitalization to $5.7 trillion, and 78% globally, from $1.1 to $20 trillion, during the next five years!

Takeaway 2: Bitcoin and Ethereum

  • According to their estimates, the price of one bitcoin could 28x and exceed $1 million by 2030.
  • Ether’s Market Cap Could Exceed $20 Trillion In The Next 10 Years, meaning the price of one ether could 70x and reach 166k by 2030.

Probably nothing…

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